Tom Harwood: Could it be that unlocking when we did, is helping to protect the NHS this winter?

Now Austria has entered another national lockdown and there have been large violent protests against further restrictions in Belgium.

As a fresh wave of Covid sweeps through Europe will we see it crash down on our shores, closing our businesses and restricting our lives too?

Well the man behind the Oxford Vaccine, Sir Andrew John Pollard thinks that is unlikely.

He said yesterday that "we've actually had some spread going on since the Summer, and so I think it's unlikely that we are going to see the very sharp rise in the next few months that has just been seen in Europe... We're already ahead of that with this particular virus."

And his words ring true.

Let's take a look at cases as they stand in Europe now.

UK cases rose beyond many other countries in July, and have bumped along relatively flatly since then.

On the other hand, European countries that suppressed their cases over the Summer have seen cases spike in the last few weeks.

Could it be that unlocking when we did, seeing our cases rise when they did - at a time of lower pressure on the NHS - is helping to protect the NHS this winter, and made our lives less miserable in the summer?

Quite possibly.

Professor Chris Whitty said as much, standing alongside Boris at the press conference announcing what the media called 'Freedom Day'.

He said whenever ending restrictions occurs, cases will rise. And there is good logic to say it's better to do that in the summer than later on.

The pro-restriction group that call themselves 'Independent SAGE' called to maintain, even increase restrictions at that time. The leader of the Labour Party Sir Keir Starmer predicted an summer NHS crisis, and declared his opposition to freedom day then too.

Well, quite possibly if we had maintained restrictions in the summer, we would be seeing the same sort of case surge that is going on in Europe right now as well.

Cases, and more importantly hospitalisations, could have surged at the same time as other winter pressure on the health service.

Now, I’m not SAGE. I’m not in the business of making predictions on this, but if we continue to avoid that sharp sudden spike Europe is experiencing, and the associated restrictions it instigates, our summer unlocking should be recognised as a masterstroke.

And those that opposed it should apologise.

But maybe this contention is wrong. Accountability matters. Let's revisit this in a few weeks' time to see who was right.