Andrew Neil: Covid deaths are over 99% below their peak - If that’s not good news I don’t know what is
Some good news about Covid...
True, the number of new cases is still rising fast. 55,000 in the past week, 11,000 yesterday alone. The Indian or Delta variant is much more transmissible which is why infections are doubling every 11 days. And that’s scary.
The good news is that this surge is concentrated on unjabbed younger adults who are unlikely to be at risk of serious illness.
We now know that if your over 50 and double vaxxed you are pretty well safe from serious illness, with at least 90% protection.
As vaccines are rolled out to younger folks that protection will spread down the age range even to those who have little to fear anyway.
Infections are even falling in Delta hotspots like Bolton and Blackburn.
All this is reflected in hospital admissions.
Despite the spike in cases they are significantly below even the best case projections of the government’s scientific advisers.
Hospitalisations are 95% below their previous peak.
Even those who are hospitalised are being discharged much quicker, sometimes after a night or two. Perhaps the government should be publishing this discharge rate.
Deaths are over 99% below their peak. 99%. If that’s not good news I don’t know what is.
It is now estimated that 80% of adults now have Covid anti-bodies.
Over 96% among the over-65s. Which is why very few older folk are now being hospitalised by Covid.
Over all age groups there are under 1,200 patients in hospital with Covid, despite the surge in cases.
And even the growth in cases looks to be slowing.
So there are reasons to be hopeful that, despite Freedom Day not happening this coming Monday, the data will be positive enough for July 19th really to be our Freedom Day. At last.
Don’t just take my unscientific word for it.
These are the words of Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, head of the Oxford vaccine trials: “The UK’s public health crisis is over” — if our vaccines continue to work.
That’s worth repeating: “The UK’s public health crisis is over.”