Today’s elections in the United States will determine whether the Republicans or Democrats control the House of Representatives, and the Senate.
This is crucial to President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda, if his party loses either house then it will be a damaging blow to his presidency.
In recent days the GOP poll numbers have been trending upwards and if this plays out on election night the Democrats will lose both the House and the Senate.
After the election is all said and done American politics will likely become gridlocked, with the Republicans cutting off Biden’s policy platform at the knees, and the President then using his veto powers to stifle anything that the GOP try to pass themselves.
What is happening for Americans today?
All 435 seats are being contested in the House of Representatives; and candidates are seeking to secure a two-year term.
Joe Biden has a big night ahead of him.
JONATHAN ERNST
As things stand the Democrats narrowly hold the balance of power, but when all the votes have been counted it’s highly likely that Kevin McCarthy will be the new speaker, and Nancy Pelosi will go back into opposition.
In the upper chamber only 35 of the 100 senate seats are being contested. The Senate is evenly balanced at 50-50 with the Democrats having the slimmest of advantages, due to the deciding vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.
It will be a tougher task for Republicans to take control, however recent polling indicates that independents and the undecided are breaking late for the Republicans.
What happens if it’s a good night for the Republicans?
If Americans hand the keys of power to the Republican party in both chambers of congress, it not only significantly curtails the Democrats' ambitions, but it will also lead to a heavily weaponised congress. Expect a series of Investigations into high profile Democrats including the President’s son Hunter Biden.
There’s also a certain level of certainty that the GOP will seek to impeach President Joe Biden, as revenge for the two impeachments of former President Donald J Trump.
Could we see a Trump comeback?
KATE MUNSCH
Will Trump make a comeback?
This year’s midterms are arguably a referendum on Trump and his MAGA brand of politics, although not on the ballot himself he has endorsed hundreds of candidates.
A big win for Republicans on Tuesday evening will provide Trump with a strong headwind heading into what is expected to be his official 2024 announcement on November the 15th.
The early announcement is designed to get out ahead of other potential 2024 GOP candidates for President such as former Vice President Mike Pence, whose book is ironically released on the same day.
What are the implications for Biden if the Democrats do badly?
Biden would become a lame duck president and be prevented from getting through any tangible legislation. And according to a recent YouGov poll only 27% of Americans want to Biden run for office again in 2024, including only 46% of Democrats, so a bad night at the office for Biden could be the final nail in the coffin.
Even prominent Democrats have come out against their own President prior to the results being announced, Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minnesota said: "I think the country would be well-served by a new generation of compelling, well-prepared, dynamic Democrats who step up”.
The bottom line is a bad night for the Democrats tonight means that Trump and MAGA are back.