Keir Starmer set to become PM by 2024 as Tories on course to lose 800 council seats in May – poll

The polling firms predicted a Labour minority government if their findings are repeated in the next general election


The Conservative Party could lose more than 800 council seats in the upcoming local elections, according to forecasts from pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now.

The findings place Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer ahead as the next Prime Minister if the results of the polling continue into the next general election.

The polling firms predict a five percent swing from the Tories to Labour at the local elections in England and Wales on May 5.

Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now found Labour will gain 835 seats, giving the party 3,722 predicted wards.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson's Tories, however, could lose 810 seats, as their wards are likely to fall from 1,965 to 1,155.

If these results are repeated for a general election, Labour would beat the Tories but would most likely have to form a coalition as they would be 15 MPs away from a majority.

The pollsters predict the Tories will lose their key councils, which include Wandsworth, Barnet, Harlow, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Southampton and Thurrock.

Sir Keir Starmer.
Sir Keir Starmer.

The Electoral Calculus founder, Martin Baxter, told the Telegraph's Chopper's Politics Podcast: "If the actual results are similar to our predictions, then Boris Johnson will be spared new backbench pressure to unseat him.

"Although the Conservatives will lose some ground in these local elections, it doesn't look like a catastrophic defeat and that is a good result for them after their poor poll ratings post-Partygate."

Labour is expected to gain Bolton, Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent, Burnley, Crawley, Flintshire, Milton Keynes, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Plymouth.

The polling took place before the Prime Minister, Carrie Johnson and Rishi Sunak were fined by Scotland Yard for breaching Covid lockdown restrictions.

Mr Baxter explained: "A Labour minority government is currently where we are – but remember, we are mid-term. Things may well change in the next two years.

"Politics has been changing quite quickly in the last two years, so we will have to wait and see. But yes, it is literally true that anything could happen in the next general election."

Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now asked more than 12,000 people in 201 district and unitary councils between April 4 and April 8 about their vote.

The sample was analysed by gender, age, social class and past voting pattern.