Recession LOOMING as UK economy FALLS by more than first thought in third quarter
The ONS said the economy also grew less than first estimated throughout the first half of the year
The UK economy contracted by more than first thought between July and September and growth has been weaker than estimated throughout much of the past year in a grim set of official figures as Britain is widely expected to be heading for recession.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) fell by a revised 0.3% in the third quarter of 2022 against the 0.2% decline initially estimated.
The ONS said the economy also grew less than first estimated throughout the first half of the year, with revisions showing the UK eked out growth of 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.1% in the second quarter.
The ONS has previously said growth stood at 0.7% and 0.2% in those quarters respectively.
In 2021, GDP growth is now shown to be weaker in the first, third and fourth quarters.
The ONS said the level of GDP is now estimated to be 0.8% below where it was before the pandemic struck, downwardly revised from the previous estimate of 0.4% below.
Jonathan Portes, professor economics at Kings College London told GB News the figures “reflect new data.”
Speaking to Rosie Wright and Andrew Pierce, Professor Portes said: “What we’ve got here is somewhat worse than what we were originally told a couple of months ago.
“This is something that actually tends to happen as the UK goes into a recession. We quite often see the initial figures revised down. That happened in 2008 as well.
“This shows that our current level of output is now significantly lower than it was at the start of the pandemic.
“It also shows that household incomes have been falling.
“There’ll be a lot of talk about are we’re actually in a recession. The fact that actual household incomes have been falling in real terms that as far as households are concerned, yes we are in a recession.”
Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “Our revised figures show the economy performed slightly less well over the last year than we previously estimated, with manufacturing and electricity generation notably weaker.
“Household incomes continued to fall in real terms, albeit at a slower rate than in the previous two quarters, while – taking account of inflation – household spending fell for the first time since the final Covid-19 lockdown in the spring of 2021.”
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