Liz Truss can go from zero to hero if she holds her nerve, says Mark Dolan
There's more bad news for those taking such pleasure in talking the country down as recession fears for the UK subside
The deafening silence from critics of the Government's growth strategy as the pound bounces back, and as the cost of borrowing falls, is a joy to behold.
And there's more bad news, for those taking such pleasure in talking the country down, as recession fears for the UK subside. Here’s top economist Julian Jessop.
"For those obsessed about whether the UK economy is already in '#recession', perhaps not... UK #GDP now estimated to have *increased* by 0.2% q/q in Q2 (April to June), revised up from the first estimate of a 0.1% *fall*."
And anyone worth their salt in the world of economics will tell you, notwithstanding the pros and cons of these tax cuts, if a recession does happen, which is increasingly unlikely, it will be shorter and shallower thanks for the most misunderstood budget in history.
What's worse, relatively small borrowing to lower taxes and boost the economy, giving businesses more money to hire staff and invest and putting cash in the pockets of ordinary Brits, or a recession.
Tax cuts or recession. What is an impossible choice. It's been it's been an interesting few days, in which the media and the markets lost their marbles.
It reminds me of the pandemic, when we had the Kent variant, and those predictable quarters of the Britain-hating press, dubbed us plague island.
Until the virus hit the continent and tore through Germany, Belgium and France. Well you're seeing a similar story with the economic headwinds.
Suddenly Britain is out of the firing line, as inflation soars in countries like Germany, with recession expected across the Eurozone and with the European Central bank making it clear they will have to intervene.
Germany has inflation of 10.9% and Holland 17.1% But we’re the basket case, are we? Far from it - after a few days of turmoil, the pound has strengthened, borrowing costs have fallen and, having seen off the threat of a deep recession, thanks to the mini budget, we ought to have an economy, that’s in modest growth by next year.
If she holds her nerve, Liz Truss, can go from zero to hero.
Normally you have to wait for an election to vote for change. But with the arrival of Liz Truss, change has already happened.
Of course she could have introduced these changes more gradually, but she's hit the ground running. She's taken the view that she's got two years and she's going to do everything she can, from day one.
The opposite of 99% of politicians, who never seem to get round to delivering their promises. What is Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s crime exactly? As they seek to make Britain an attractive place for investment and a powerhouse of economic output?
Because it challenges the orthodoxy. The IMF is caught up in the dogma of centre left politics and economics, namely big state, bid debt, big tax and anaemic growth.
Trussonomics, whilst being a bit of a white knuckle ride, is one in the eye to this economic group thing that sees ever increasing role for the state and the long, slow and painful economic death that is tax and spend.
By going it alone and going for growth, Britain is doing the equivalent of what Sweden did during the pandemic, which is to ignore established wisdom, look at the data and go our own way.
In the case of Sweden, they kept schools open, shops and businesses. They didn't make you wear a mask, and they didn't have a single day of lockdown.
They were attacked at the time, just as Britain is being attacked now for its economic vision, but the Swedes are laughing all the way to the bank.
Having suffered a fraction of the economic damage of most other Western nations, us included, that decided it would be a good idea to shut down the economy for two and a half years, borrow half a trillion quid, close once viable businesses and pay perfectly healthy people to stay at home.
Post pandemic, as far as I'm concerned expert is now a four letter word.
I won't accept any orthodoxy going forward, including in relation to the economy. In the end, organisations like the IMF just can't bear Britain thinking independently and exercising its newfound sovereignty.
Most establishment commentators are furious about Brexit and were so hoping to see Britain's bold bid for growth horribly backfire. This week’s front cover of the Economist is an illustration of Kwasi Kwarteng and Liz Truss on a sinking boat, labelled Great Britain. The headline – how not to run a country.
The extent to which certain quarters of the press loathe this country, is astonishing.
Britain is breaking the rules, it's smashing the dogma and it's leading the way in becoming what I believe will, in time, become a model for the 21st century economy.
And we can watch with amusement and pleasure, as black as bankers flock to the UK from Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid keen to earn their bonuses here, spend their money here and pay their taxes here.
I want their cash, don’t you? Fridays mini budget annoyed all of the right people. And as the market settle, history will prove it was the right thing to do.
What Truss’s critics won’t acknowledge is that the alternative to her gamble is a long hard recession, ever-higher taxes, chronically disintegrating public services, zero growth, stagnant productivity & a country kept on life support by artificially low interest rates.
Hysteria around interest rates needs to calm down too.
If we're going to help everyone in society, particular the poorest, if we're going to invest in public services, in infrastructure.
If we’re going to tackle the cost of living crisis and improve outcomes for our youngsters, we've got to go for growth.
And those taking such pleasure at slagging Britain off need to grow a pair.
Post pandemic, I've had enough of establishment group think.
Friday’s mini budget was about as warmly received as Gary Glitter at a Center Parcs, but I believe it will ultimately move the dial for our economic prospects.
That mini-budget will be step one, in making Britain great again.
Yes the budget was poorly presented and explained, and it was an open goal not to get the Office For Budget Responsibility to give it the once over, which they now will.
But the fundamentals were right and will in time bear fruit. We've got to go for growth, Britain's critics need to grow up, and the markets need to need to grow a pair.
As the world falls into recession, Britain may well buck the trend. Far from being plague island, if we play our cards right, we will be the envy of the world. We didn’t budget for that, did we?