Labour is doomed - Keir Starmer will NEVER win the next election, says Keith Bays
The Labour Party is taking a victory lap two years out from a general election, but history points to a Conservative win...
LABOUR is odds-on to crush the Tories when Britain next heads to the polls, but many seem to have forgotten the latter have an enormous 78-seat majority in the House of Commons. That inescapable mathematics means Labour need an enormous swing of up to nine points to provide the party with the seats needed to regain power.
It's a major headache for Sir Keir Starmer. A swing of that size hasn't been seen since Margaret Thatcher came to power in 1979, when she defeated James Callaghan. The last time Labour won a landslide majority in 1997 the Conservative Party, then led by John Major, was defending a majority of just 21, and after 18 years in power was ripe for the picking. Tony Blair duly delivered a landslide victory.
It is a much, much steeper task for Labour this time around. Not only do they have a huge Conservative majority to overcome but they also have an extremely difficult electoral map to tackle, particularly in Scotland where there are very few signs they can win back any seats from the SNP.
Labour will also face real difficulties in winning back red wall voters, many of whom see Sir Keir as the man who tried to thwart their democratic wish to leave the European Union. Potential boundary changes before the next election could further hamper the party in their attempts to win power.
And then, there's the personality problem. Sir Keir is not blessed with charisma and there are very few signs the British public is warming to him. Policies matter but history tells us that personality is key in winning any election, and the only time Labour has won at the ballot box in recent decades - as Peter Mandelson has repeatedly pointed out - was when British voters were under the spell of Tony Blair. He was a great orator but also blessed with charisma and charm. Labour under Sir Keir is devoid of the crucial wow factor which does pose a serious problem when trying to overturn a majority of 78 in one electoral cycle.
Labour is still in the box seat and could form the next government, but they should not be naïve enough to think victory is guaranteed. They have multiple hurdles to overcome and - for now - are thin on the ground when it comes to tangible policies to present to the voters.
Their recent performance in the opinion polls is more down to the self-harm inflicted by the Conservatives rather than Starmer leading the way with a policy platform to improve the lives of average Brits.
Labour also has the very real problem of the unions, a thorn in the side of many a party leader in the past and this will be no different for Sir Keir. The party needs to fill its coffers with money from the trade union barons if it is to have the cash to fight a successful general election campaign, but at the same time it can't appear to be at the mercy of the hard-left, which would turn off middle Britain, and lose them the votes they need to have a chance of a clear majority.
With yet more strikes planned by train drivers, postal workers and nurses, Labour needs to very quickly put its political capital where its mouth is, and either show solidarity with it's base by allowing MPs to attend picket lines or declare that they don’t support the strikes.
Are we about to see Sir Keir and Labour repeat Neil Kinnock’s mistakes of 1992 all over again? The jury is very much out.
* Keith Bays is an Assistant Producer at GB News